Well, it really isn't about a horse...but there are horses...a couple of really nice chestnuts with prominent blazes...only about 13 hands but nice little ponies...what? You didn't know I was a horseman from the old days? I hung out at all of the tracks from Del Mar to Santa Rosa, including the small town fair circuit...where they broke from a rope...anyway...secrets from my youth...
Appaloosa starring Ed Harris and Viggo Mortensen supported by Rene Zellweger and Jeremy Irons is a splendid little movie...with Ms. Zellweger constantly creating confounding conundrums (not bad, eh?)...that are neatly weaved through the movie and ultimately bring the characters to a point of painful resolution...both physically, emotionally and professionally...and while one could figure things out as it went if you think hard enough on it...these characters make it the best Western I have seen in a long time...and one of the better movies I have seen in a year or so...
worth the watch...I give it four peaches!
So...anything else we should talk about? Hmmmm....
Who is this old guy? Uncle Earl? No, just a dull old economist and philosopher...name of John Maynard Keynes who came up with this little nugget...
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
...so as we go into this wacky week there are some big questions about the fundamentals of the market which lead us to a couple of serious questions:
*If Keynes is correct it is really pucker up time as we are toast. All of us.
*If Keynes is not correct it is really double down time. Sell the car and the poodle and buy some quality stocks. Very soon.
*Maybe Keynes is half right #1. The market is irrational. But not for long.
*Maybe Keynes is half right #2. We cannot stay solvent. And it has nothing to do with the length of the market crash.
At the moment (a Sunday morning, only one cup of coffee down, so it might change after cup two)...I am leaning towards some combination of options #3 and #4...that he is half right...
...so I think the market will recover...quicker than many suppose...but not quick enough for most...I am thinking that 12-18 months from now we will recover 1/2 of this loss...and then the remaining amount will take another 3 years to get the rest back...which in historical terms will be a "mild depression" and will not be an ordinary economic cycle...
But the solvency thing really gnaws at me...and my point is it is not the stock market that will bring on mass insolvency but rather the unrealistic standard of living most Americans (and other countries as well, namely Europe but even the MidEast oil kingdoms) have created...we have tapped out our homes and saved pennies on the dollar and are awash in debt...and with the housing market we are in a similar situation to oil prices and cars...
What do I mean?
My point is this. When gas prices drop people are going to return to their driving habits of the past...and not learn anything from the pain of $4 rising to $5 and beyond gas prices...and the same will be true of housing prices...
...thus, if housing prices begin to stabilize (which may be happening in some markets) and then slowly recover...people will just put whatever possible advances in equity they make back into silly purchases once again...and we will have learned nothing from this disaster.
I hope I am very wrong on this and that things have changed. We will have to wait and see...
...but in the meantime...go and see a good movie! A BARGAIN MATINEE AND SKIP THE POPCORN!
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